If AMD lets Nvidia run rampant, we’re all in trouble

2 weeks ago

Both Nvidia and AMD are expected to motorboat caller graphics cards wrong nan adjacent fewer months. It’s nary concealed arsenic to which of nan 2 lineups has a higher chance of topping nan charts pinch 1 of nan best GPUs.

AMD is said to beryllium sitting retired of nan high-end title this generation, and though this could beryllium nan correct attack for AMD, it’s really really bad news for Nvidia fans. As a gamer, letting Nvidia monopolize nan user GPU sphere is nan past point that I wish for.

A not-so-heated rivalry

The RTX 4090 sitting alongside nan Fractal Terra case.

The signs of a patient GPU marketplace see plentifulness of stock, nary shortages, reasonable prices, and immoderate grade of rivalry betwixt nan 2 — well, three, if you count Intel — competitors.

Get your play teardown of nan tech down PC gaming

Unfortunately, I person to opportunity that nan GPU marketplace is decidedly astatine consequence of slipping into “unhealthy” territory, and that’s not because of immoderate spot shortages. It’s much that the rivalry betwixt AMD and Nvidia has cooled down, and things are improbable to get immoderate amended going forward.

Some of it whitethorn beryllium conscionable that we haven’t had immoderate caller GPU releases for a while, and it was Nvidia that came retired pinch 3 caller graphics cards astatine nan opening of nan year. The RTX 40 Super refresh was a deed each around, pinch a cheaper RTX 4080 Super and 2 coagulated options successful nan shape of nan RTX 4070 Ti Super and nan RTX 4070 Super.

Meanwhile, AMD’s had 2 GPUs travel retired this year. One of them, nan RX 7600 XT, hardly moved nan needle erstwhile compared to its non-XT counterpart; nan XT paper is only astir 6% faster, but moreover months aft nan release, it still costs astir $50 to $60 more. These numbers conscionable don’t adhd up. There’s besides nan RX 7900 GRE, which was a mighty show of equilibrium betwixt costs and capacity — let’s person much of that successful RDNA 4, please.

With a quietish GPU market, it’s nary wonderment that things are starting to consciousness a spot stale. What’s more, moreover though some manufacturers were initially said to motorboat next-gen GPUs this year, it’s highly improbable to hap astatine this point.

Two AMD Radeon RX 7000 graphics cards connected a pinkish surface.

Even still, though some Nvidia and AMD haven’t released immoderate next-gen GPUs this year, it’s Nvidia that’s slow chipping distant astatine AMD’s marketplace share. The latest information shows that successful nan 2nd 4th of 2023, AMD held a 17% add-in committee (AIB, aliases discrete GPU) marketplace share. A twelvemonth later, successful nan 2nd 4th of 2024, it’s down to 12%. Intel’s had it rough, too. It had a measly 2% graphics paper marketplace stock 1 twelvemonth ago, but now, it’s down to 0%.

There’s more. Earlier this year, AMD revealed that its wide gaming gross successful nan first 4th of 2024 was down by 48% year-over-year. AMD only expected things to get worse successful nan 2nd half of 2024.

This leaves Nvidia sitting beautiful pinch 88% of nan GPU marketplace successful its hands.

A sound, but disappointing decision

Fans connected nan RX 7900 GRE graphics card.

For galore months now, various leakers person each been successful statement erstwhile it comes to 1 thing: Creating a high-end RDNA 4 graphics paper is not a privilege for AMD, and it’s not going to happen. If location ever was specified a GPU (and many person said that it existed), it’s been canceled.

The existent anticipation is that AMD’s flagship will beryllium adjacent to nan RX 7900 XT successful rasterization, but it’ll surpass it successful ray tracing. That’s not overmuch of an improvement, and this type of capacity will astir apt make nan flagship RX 8000 bid paper a rival for Nvidia’s RTX 5070 Ti astatine best. Mind you, I’m simply speculating based connected leaks — AMD hasn’t disclosed its plans for RDNA 4 conscionable yet. It could still astonishment america all.

It’s not conscionable that AMD isn’t aiming precocious pinch its next-gen cards, but besides that it mightiness beryllium falling down successful adopting nan latest representation tech. While Nvidia is said to move to GDDR7 representation successful nan RTX 50-series — possibly including nan latest 24Gb modules — AMD is said to beryllium sticking to GDDR6. AMD ne'er adopted GDDR6X successful nan first place, which Nvidia has been utilizing successful this full existent gen of cards, and AMD mightiness still not make nan move successful RDNA 4.

On nan different hand, AMD does person nan precocious manus successful a mates of ways. Its GPUs mostly person higher representation capacity than their Nvidia equivalents, and Infinity Cache helps offset nan little bandwidth. AMD has besides already adopted nan DisplayPort 2.1 connector, which Nvidia will only see successful nan RTX 50-series. But still, if Nvidia uses GDDR7 representation crossed its full lineup, there’s bound to beryllium a ample quality successful bandwidth betwixt comparable cards.

All of nan supra leaks constituent to a mainstream card. Nvidia whitethorn stay unmatched astatine nan precocious end, and successful each likelihood, nan champion we tin dream to spot is an AMD flagship that tin hit nan RTX 4080 Super.

Jacob Roach / Digital Trends

I’m nary marketplace analyst, but moreover I cognize that this is astir apt a sound decision. As I’ve said before, there’s a batch of merit successful aiming for nan mainstream market. After all, astir of america won’t beryllium buying nan likes of nan RTX 5090. There’s a logic why Nvidia’s xx60 cards apical nan Steam Hardware Survey period aft month: Mainstream GPUs are much affordable and capable for nan immense mostly of gamers. And if AMD knows that it can’t hit nan RTX 5090, it makes consciousness for it to instrumentality to acquainted waters and target nan marketplace that’s much unfastened to its graphics cards.

Smart arsenic it whitethorn be, this determination is worrying, and I don’t conscionable mean for AMD enthusiasts. In fact, Nvidia fans mightiness suffer from this deficiency of title much than those who bargain AMD GPUs.

A $2,500 GPU?

Recently, we’ve talked astir a worrying leak that reportedly comes from 1 of Nvidia’s partners. It had to do pinch nan imaginable pricing for nan RTX 50-series, and I’m not going to lie: It was decidedly not bully news. Moore’s Law Is Dead cited an anonymous root erstwhile reporting that Nvidia mightiness complaint betwixt $2,000 and $2,500 for an RTX 5090. This would beryllium followed by a $1,200 to $1,500 RTX 5080, and a $600 to $700 RTX 5070.

This is what I mean by “letting Nvidia tally rampant.” With nary title from AMD, Nvidia has little of an inducement to effort to support its prices reasonable, and this could consequence successful this benignant of crazy pricing crossed nan full stack.

What’s worse is that these kinds of inflated prices would impact not conscionable those who want to bargain an RTX 5090. A $1,200 to $1,500 RTX 5080 is beautiful outrageous, particularly if you see that Nvidia really lowered nan pricing of nan RTX 4080 from $1,200 to $1,000 erstwhile it rereleased it arsenic a somewhat tweaked Super version. And $700 for an RTX 5070? That’s $100 much than nan RTX 4070 astatine launch; not to mention that these days, you’ll find it for arsenic debased arsenic $530.

Fortunately, I person to opportunity that a $2,500 RTX 5090 seems beautiful overmuch impossible. (Let’s dream I don’t eat my words successful a fewer months time.) That’s nan aforesaid value arsenic nan RTX Titan, and cipher loved really costly that paper was. Even nan RTX 3090 Ti, which was outrageously pricey, was “only” $2,000. The RTX 5090 whitethorn beryllium a measurement up, but that benignant of pricing should still beryllium reserved for thing moreover much powerful; possibly nan RTX 5090 Ti, if that ever happens.

I don’t deliberation that a $2,500 RTX 5090 will go a reality. But there’d beryllium moreover little of a chance of it happening if AMD was there, pinch a paper fresh to compete against astatine slightest nan 5080 astatine a overmuch much reasonable value point. I’m talking thing for illustration what nan RX 7900 XTX could’ve been if AMD priced it little from nan get-go.

As things guidelines now, Nvidia is raking successful each nan marketplace recognition, too. The number of RTX 50-series leaks is increasing by nan day, but there’s not been overmuch astir RDNA 4. Perhaps AMD is keeping accusation person to nan vest, but that doesn’t thief successful building anticipation for a procreation that mightiness consciousness underwhelming successful a world wherever everyone is hyperfocused connected capacity gains.

Too early to panic

The AMD Radeon RX 7900 XTX graphics card.

Although I wish AMD had much of a beingness successful nan GPU market, it’s decidedly not yet nan clip to panic.

We’ve seen AMD claw its measurement up from adjacent obscurity successful nan CPU market. Now, it’s a formidable competitor to Intel, pinch its X3D processors being wide touted arsenic nan gaming CPUs to buy. In fact, some nan 5800X3D and nan 7800X3D are beautiful overmuch sold retired correct now, and everyone’s holding their activity successful anticipation of nan upcoming 9800X3D. Intel’s Arrow Lake whitethorn struggle to make that benignant of hype.

AMD has done it before, and it tin do it again if it wants to. It whitethorn ne'er go a marketplace leader successful nan GPU sphere, but it gives gamers an important replacement pinch coagulated GPUs that often thin to connection amended capacity per dollar than Nvidia’s.

Nvidia’s RTX 50-series pricing could get beautiful crazy — that’s unluckily true. However, astir sources work together that $2,500 for nan RTX 5090 is highly improbable to happen. But $2,000? Yeah, I could spot that happening. That’s still a lot, and it’s bound to push nan prices of nan remainder of nan lineup higher than they should be, too. I wish AMD could thief forestall that from happening.

The truth is, Nvidia tin push nan prices higher if it wants to. Despite being expensive, nan RTX 4090 stayed supra nan $1,600 recommended database value (MSRP) ever since it launched. If anything, nan value has only gone up. With a accordant request and group consenting to salary supra marketplace price, I person a difficult clip holding retired dream that Nvidia mightiness support its flagship astir that $1,600 ballpark. I’ve resigned myself to that $1,800 to $2,000 figure, though I dream I’m wrong.

Pressure from AMD surely would’ve helped. To enactment healthy, nan GPU marketplace needs much than conscionable Nvidia. I’m worried that we’ll spot nan afloat effect of Nvidia’s monopoly connected nan high-end graphics paper marketplace successful nan upcoming RTX 50-series. We’ll apt find retired much during CES 2025 successful January.