Elon Musk admits full self-driving likely won't be possible on older Tesla vehicles

Why it matters: Tesla's travel towards afloat self-driving capabilities continues, but nan roadworthy up whitethorn beryllium longer and much analyzable than initially anticipated. Issues pinch older vehicles and nan continuous hardware upgrading required complicate Tesla's FSD roadmap.

During a convention telephone pursuing Tesla's Q3 2024 financial results, CEO Elon Musk acknowledged that nan company's older self-driving hardware whitethorn not execute afloat autonomy. The admittance comes aft years of promises that each Tesla vehicles would soon beryllium capable to thrust themselves.

We are not 100 percent sure. HW4[Tesla's latest loop of self-driving machine hardware for its vehicles introduced past year] has respective times nan capacity of HW3. It's easier to get things to activity connected HW4 and it takes a batch of efforts to compression that into HW3. There is immoderate chance that HW3 does not execute nan information level that allows for unsupervised FSD [Full Self Driving]

Some owners whitethorn spot this connection arsenic a slap successful nan face. For 5 years, Musk has consistently claimed that afloat self-driving was conscionable astir nan area for existing Tesla vehicles. Musk has floated nan thought of free upgrades to owners who purchased nan Full Self-Driving package pinch HW3-equipped vehicles to stem imaginable outrage. It is unclear really overmuch this will costs nan company.

However, implementing these upgrades whitethorn not beryllium arsenic straightforward arsenic it sounds. The HW4 strategy uses different powerfulness and camera harnesses, and nan machine has a different shape factor. Retrofitting existing vehicles pinch HW4 could beryllium analyzable and costly.

Additionally, while Musk describes nan cameras successful HW3 vehicles arsenic "capable," nan HW4 cameras connection importantly higher solution and improved low-light performance. It's unclear whether these camera upgrades would besides beryllium basal to execute afloat self-driving capabilities. Tesla's cars are already nether an NHTSA investigation complete a fatal clang involving debased visibility.

Even if Tesla manages to flooded these method hurdles, questions stay astir nan viability of afloat self-driving technology. Musk admitted that he is unsure whether HW3 tin yet execute FSD functionality. Although he remains assured that HW4 tin attain FSD capability, nan early is uncertain owed to issues that widen beyond nan system's advancement.

The computational demands of FSD systems are immense. Tesla has had to upgrade hardware to meet nan software's requirements continuously. Couple that pinch nan truth that nan vehicles must execute a information level that satisfies regulators and nan public. Tesla has faced galore investigations and recalls relating to its Autopilot and FSD systems.

Many experts person doubts astir FSD arsenic well. William Stein, a exertion expert astatine Truist Securities, precocious test-drove a Tesla equipped pinch an FSD system. Each clip Stein was successful nan car, he reported it made unsafe aliases forbidden maneuvers. Once, nan conveyance turned near from a done lane while moving a reddish light.

Approximately 500,000 Tesla owners person activated nan FSD characteristic connected their vehicles for usage connected nationalist roads, aliases conscionable complete 20 percent of each Teslas presently successful operation. Tesla has been clear that, contempt its name, nan FSD strategy does not make vehicles afloat autonomous. The institution emphasizes that drivers must stay alert and prepared to return power astatine immoderate moment. To enforce this, Tesla has implemented a monitoring strategy that tracks driver behaviour and tin revoke entree to FSD if users neglect to support capable supervision.